Future VW fate and it's impact on Pagoda values

[68_white]

I would be interested to hear the opinion of this forum regarding the potential fate of VW and it's impact on Pagoda values. If for example VW goes out of business.

[JamesL]

Why would the demise of VW impact values of a 50 year old Merc?

More concerning is the by now widespread assumption that this could mean the end of VW (Skoda, Audi and Seat) with the loss of jobs and GDP in multiple countries that could result. VW have plants in Germany. Holland. Czech, US, China, Sth Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Japan, Taiwan, Austria, Russia, Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, Bosnia, Italy, Mexico, Spain, Portugal, France, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Hungary, India, Belgium, Slovakia and Japan.

[Cees Klumper]

No discernable impact IMO.

[jameshoward]

Weird question. Unless you assume that folk who'd want to buy a Polo end up seeking pagodas. And VW will not go out of business. TBTF.

[Rolf-Dieter ✝︎]

While the situation with VW is indeed very grim and will have severe impact on the companies last 5 to 10 year earnings as well as hardship to VW factories and dealerships around the world .... The company in my opinion will survive. Think back to 1945 VW along with German industry in general they had all suffered great losses at that time in history and they all survived.


As far as any impact on our cars, why should there be any impact at all ? As James so well put it "weirded question"

[enochbell]

I agree with responses, don't really understand the basis for the question, maybe there is a link that I can't see?  I am not an industry expert but I have read several analyst opinions and consensus is that VW will survive, albeit bloodied and hurting for quite some time, with the fines and loss of revenues taking a toll.  The halo effect is already apparent as potential buyers of all their products are spooked and staying away from showrooms.  But look at the Firestone example, where they were guilty of knowingly (and deceivingly) selling a faulty product that was actually responsible for something a little more serious than smog...they actually killed people in rollover crashes caused by their faulty tires.  There were 3,000 catastrophic incidences (not deaths) before Ford and Firestone finally recalled the tires.  That was almost 25 years ago, and no one really even remembers the debacle, despite the fact that it was the second time Firestone was involved in a huge public relations nightmare.
I don't think it is cavalier for me to have less concern for current owners...I believe the class actions will make them whole.  My concern is for the folks who will be furloughed in the near and, perhaps, distant future.  These are the working folks who supply parts, assemble vehicles, and sell them, among others.  This will include the USA plant in Tennessee where there will be a huge impact on the 2,000 employees who make a living in tough economy there.  And the plant is just the tip of the iceberg, with the supply chain of parts reaching around the globe.

Just my $.02

g

[twistedtree]

I agree.  No impact on Pagoda values - zero.

And VW will continue on, though I wouldn't be surprised if they end up as part of some other car company.  If their market cap gets low enough, someone might scoop them up, but I don't think that will happen until it's clearer what the scope of the "problem" is, and how it's likely to get resolved, i.e. what liability any acquiring company would be taking on.

[hauser]

Here's the VW group.  I don't see VW going away any time soon.

http://www.volkswagenag.com/content/vwcorp/content/en/brands_and_products.html

[Rolf-Dieter ✝︎]

If you check you will find that VW is rated as the second largest company in the world, Volkswagen is a Family Business: Piëch/Porsche
there 2013,reported revenue was US$ 261.53 billion. It will as I said before have a impact on there past earnings as well as there reputation, then the new management team will clean house and time will heal this issue.

[DaveB]

The OP may be envisaging a possible backlash against older, higher emission cars on the roads. But then the "..if VW goes out of business" bit doesn't make sense.
68_white could you put us out of our suspense and tell us what's your surmised connection? Could the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil create a tornado in Texas?

[Garry]

Whilst the actions of VW look bad and the outcome to the bottom line will hurt for a few years, the problem appears to be fairly well contained to the USA. Around the rest of the world I suspect it is business as usual.  Certainly is here, I went to a VW dealer to ask about ordering a new vehicle on Friday. Business as usual and according to them a US problem relating to about 800k cars, a small proportion (but important) of the VW Group total sales.

Effect on our values, nil.

Garry

[Cees Klumper]

Today I heard Switzerland has told VW it cannot sell certain car models here until further notice.

[68_white]

Is VW the only German company cheating on emmissions?

[Cees Klumper]

before we answer that, did you get your first question answered?

[Benz Dr.]

This is kind of like when my second cousin robbed a bank 50 years ago and then my sister got stood up for a date last week. The only connection was our last name and that we're of French ancestry.  Tenuous at best...........  

[scoot]

Today I heard Switzerland has told VW it cannot sell certain car models here until further notice.

and Canada.  And more to follow.   I read today that Bosch cautioned VW in 2007 against using the software in real-world conditions rather than for test purposes.

[68_white]

My biggest fear is to hear Mercedes cheated on emmissions testing. What makes me think that? Bosch warned VW in 2007 not to use the software. Did Bosch write the evading software? Did they supply similar software to other automakers? Just speculation, but worth looking into the possible outcomes of any possible scenarios. Mr. Cees, the tone of your note indicates that you were offended by my hypothesis. I can not apologize for that, since this is just a conversation and expression of opinions, not a court of law.

[DaveB]

Is VW the only German company cheating on emmissions?

I'm sure this is being investigated intensely right now, but whatever the outcome I think it's unlikely to affect the pagoda market.

Here in Australia VW have not disclosed whether their diesel cars are running the test-cheating software but I think they must, otherwise Australian emissions testing would have picked up the discrepancy.

I didn't get the impression that Cees took or meant any offense, he just seemed to be enquiring about the 'fate of VW' aspect of your initial post.

[w113bkk]

The same way VW will impact the value of a Corvair or Lancia.

[RobSirg]

Given we all thought the original question was a bit left-field, it has generated some discussion so we have to commend Harry for that.

Here's my 2c worth:

Assuming that top Auto Engineers and Designers are one day working for VW and the next day working for BMW and/or Mercedes, etc, one has to assume they all know what each other is doing, and are following suit. If they didn't, then surely their emissions ratings would be 35 times worse than that of VW (as I read in the paper the independent test revealed the result on a VW was 35 times worse than the 'official' published test result).

Will be interesting to see how this unfolds from here.

As for emission rating/control?....given my daily drive is a 26 year old V8......I'm probably not the best person to consult 

[scoot]

Given we all thought the original question was a bit left-field, it has generated some discussion so we have to commend Harry for that.

That's putting it well.  I agree the the original question isn't particularly relevent.

Assuming that top Auto Engineers and Designers are one day working for VW and the next day working for BMW and/or Mercedes, etc, one has to assume they all know what each other is doing, and are following suit. If they didn't, then surely their emissions ratings would be 35 times worse than that of VW (as I read in the paper the independent test revealed the result on a VW was 35 times worse than the 'official' published test result).

I would disagree.   To the best of my knowledge, at least in the U.S. VW is / was the only seller of diesel passenger cars that didn't use the blue-def system.   And is those cars that are cheating.    So I don't think anyone else in the states is selling the same product.

[Shvegel]

Oxides of Nitrogen are proportional to heat of combustion.  The only way to fix it is going to be put in larger engines or turn down the boost.  If there was an easy fix they would have done it.  Fuel efficiency, low emissions and performance are tough to deliver. 

As for the impact on the value of our cars I think they might even go up.  There is going to be a whole bunch of very rich lawyers very soon.   

[Benz Dr.]

Is it just me; but why don't a get a sense of feeling anything about this? If I owned one maybe it would be a problem, but I don't, and somehow feel there's more important things going on to be concerned about.

 So another huge corporation got caught with their pants down. What else is new? 

[wwheeler]

I own one and I am not really that concerned about my car's fate. It will work out one way or the other and my worrying about it won't change things. It is not a safety issue and a drop in the bucket in the emissions world.

I agree, another greedy corporation that got caught. And many more fish in the sea to catch unfortunately. I feel sorry for all of the innocent people that will lose their jobs and so forth because of this.  

BTW - Just received the first of many letters to come regarding legal action. That didn't take long......

[Garry]

This just had to be coming..

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3259067/It-s-not-just-VW-Official-tester-claims-four-diesel-car-giants-break-toxic-emissions-limit.html