Alfred, if it's not a shortage it will certainly be something else. A chief source of lithium is Bolivia, you know, really friendly Bolivia? I don't think it's true anymore but recently they were the largest supplier.
The battery chemistry is chasing physics--meaning what everyone is trying to achieve is near impossible to get to. Optimal energy densities just are not possible now. Elon Musk talks a big game, but has yet to prove anything in the battery area...other than getting tax breaks and building a big factory in the desert to build what amounts to yesterday's technology. I don't fault him too much however, since we don't have tomorrow's technology in batteries yet.
For all the great benefit the batteries are an expensive sore point with PEVs. They have always been, and will continue to be...until someone comes up with the magic bullet. I'm sure glad I leased our cars, as the batteries list price is over $9,000. Yikes. The lease expires before the warranty. Thank goodness for that!
There's also an elephant in the room that nobody likes to talk about. Batteries--ANY kind of batteries--like a temperate climate. If you are cold, they are cold; if you are hot they are hot. They don't function that great in the heat or the cold, and I have 2 cars and the experience to prove it. Further, that climate of comfort inside a car is exceedingly difficult to maintain. Heating or cooling a car uses an astounding amount of battery capacity...in my case in the dead of winter or the heat of summer (which is a measurable amount of the USA, except for where you live) the fully-charged range of my PEVs drops in half if you have to heat or cool the cars to any significant degree. Imagine going out to your car with a freshly filled up tank of gas, seeing the temperatures hit 95 degrees and then see your fuel tank immediately drop to 50%. That's the reality of a PEV, but nobody ever mentions.
Shortages have a habit of reappearing every now and then...
This article from 2014
http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014/11/18/gigafactory-lithium-shortage/ says it might show up soon.
I actually do not believe there will be a shortage. Only prices will rise, and anybody in the battery industry will be able to buy whatever they want...at increasing prices! So we shift dealing with fracking and OPEC and exchanging it for the lithium suppliers...
So there's way more to this "cradle to grave" sensibility that the manufacturers and green folks are talking about...
