Pagoda SL Group
W113 Pagoda SL Group => General Discussion => Topic started by: Alex D on January 04, 2018, 16:48:08
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I don't really follow the market on our cars very close, but was quite surprised to see the latest Hagerty valuation.
According to the Hagerty newsletter I just recieved it looks like our Pagodas took an approx -10% valuation loss from Jan 2017 to Jan 2018. I know Hagerty is only not source for valuations, and not sure how accurate the Hagerty valuations are relative to the actual market place. They really didn't give a good reason. 10% seems pretty large.
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I paid for my pagoda 65000$ Last October and it was worth 75000$ a year ago .
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Prices as we all know took quite a jump 2014 to 2016, an adjustment like the stock market can be expected I think.
The DOW pased a record high milestone of 25,000 today, I know an adjustment here is just around the corner.
I purchased mine in 2013 and I could get double for it if I would sell her, then if I did it would leave me with funds to invest that the DOW would cash into when the adjustment comes and I would be deprived of my fun with the Pagoda and that is out of the question.
My 2 cents
Dieter
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I used to have a very nice Pagoda. I used to drive it on nice days to Starbuck's and watched over it thru the window. Once a car backed into it and I called the police. The car had expired tabs and I never got a hold of the owner. So I fixed the damage myself. I promised myself I would be more careful and kept the car in my garage. Last September a visitor lost control and ran a car thru my garage door and into the Pagoda. Lots of damage. I wonder if a crash in the stock market could equal the loss in value of my Mercedes. What would be more depressing, to look at my car or to look at my portfolio? But let's look at the bright side: what would I do all day if I did no cars to fix?
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I agree with Dieter. Pagodas increased in value greatly over the past few years so a reduction is not unexpected.
Maybe there was some hype involved in their assent?
They still are highly valued.
That is why I think 107's are becoming more popular. You can buy a nice 107 for $ 20K or under in the US.
What does $20k get you in a pagoda?
just my 2 cents,
jz
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As has been said many times, the phenomenon of buying an old car and then watch it rise in value substantially over a short period of time is not normal.
Historically I have bought a car, run it, maintained it, enjoyed it!, then perhaps sold it a few years later and at best got my original purchase price back.
This used to allow me to plan and save for the next car I wanted, on the assumption that I had an idea of what I would be paying for the next car I fancied a year or two before I bought it.
That went out of the window five years ago, and has prevented me buying certain cars I really wanted which have became part of iivestment portfolios, no longer able to be enjoyed by the majority of enthusiasts.
I for one would welcome a return to the norm, which would require a major correction in values, and then watch the portfolio managers dump stock into the market.
It's chicken and egg as to who moves first.
It will/is happening. I sold a highly sought after low volume Italian car a couple of months ago, which I had bought seven years ago. In order to get a sale I ended up accepting about 30% less than the current perceived/advertised values. I was still happy, but it reinforced my view.
Just my opinion.......
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Cost of my rusty 1970 280SL in 2009 - 14,000.00
Cost of parts to restore her to safe drivable and fun condition $25,000
71/2 years of Sunday afternoons restoring the 280SL with my Son, Wife and Friends....
Priceless! :D
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I can absolutely see a softening of the vintage car market across the board. We are coming off a high peak from a few years ago. I see a correlation between the stock market and vintage cars in that when the stock market has uncertainty then investors seem more willing to invest in "hard assets" real estate vintage cars artwork etc. When the stock market is good and it has been good then I see people more inclined to put their money in equities rather than hard assets. Markets are cyclical and I feel the market will continue to adjust downward.
That being said, if a good vintage car (ie a Pagoda, 356, early 911) is really a good car it will still bring good money. You get what you pay for. I also see even within this softer market that really bad rough cars (basket case rust buckets) are still selling for way to much money. So there is still demand.
No matter whether the Pagoda market is in an incline or a decline I will always recommend paying more for a good car than paying less for a not so good car. And i also feel that the Pagoda cars will always have a good demand for them in the future. They are beautiful well engineered cars. The best built grand turismo sport cars. The W113 was a direct alternative to the Porsche 356's early 911's and Ferrari 330's. They offered and incredible value in comparison to them both then and now.
In the end your main reason for buying one of these cars is because you want one, because you love one, not because you are primarily banking on it like you would be in the S&P 500. Preservation of your investment in a vintage car is secondary.
Just my thoughts not facts.
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Just my thoughts not facts.
And good thoughts they are Peter.
Dieter
PS. I noticed that most (if not all) car prices are reduced at Bud'sBenz
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The market, thankfully, has adjusted from what I considered unsustainable highs during 2014 - 2015. I just got back from the auctions in Scottsdale. I think some conclusions can be drawn from what we saw there. While the 'fancy auctions' really only represent a small slice of the market, they are a very public part of the market, and a part that enthusiasts, very educated as well as casual enthusiasts, pay attention to.
I wrote this article on www.mercedes-market.com about the Pagoda SL sales in Scottsdale. (http://www.mercedes-market.com/2018/01/24/sl-w113-pagoda-market-analysis-arizona-auction-week-2018/)
There are links to in depth reports on three specific cars within this article too.
To complicate the market, tons of W113 SLs came out of the wood work when prices skyrocketed a couple of years ago. Today, there are over 100 Pagodas for sale on hemmings.com, for example (dealers + private sellers, this # doesn't include auction listings). It's supply and demand... add to that, buyers are more educated and more discerning than ever before. Prices had to come back to reality, despite the high cost of restoration 'values' have dropped. But remember, your car is still probably worth double today than what it was back in even 2010.
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Some very interesting individual articles on the vehicles that were sold. Here is an example of a one owner well kept car, it would have been a good buy with all original paperwork..
One Owner Mercedes 280 SL Brings Strong Money at Russo and Steele Scottsdale 2018The 1970 Mercedes 280 SL offered at Russo and Steele in Scottsdale this year was a very nice car and brought a strong price of $85,800 against an auction estimate of $85,000 – $125,000. This was said to be a one owner car from new. Painted in the unique color combination of Horizon Blue (304 G) with contrasting Medium Blue (350 H) hard top and hub caps with blue MB tex interior. The odometer read 69,608 and was reported to be original mileage.[/font]
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Yes Garry, I liked that car A LOT! Just an honest representation of a solid, largely original car. Some grime underhood, the white plastic around the shift gate was yellowed and cracked... usual stuff, but nice that it wasn't overly 'spiffed up' for the auction. Frankly, you more often see thick, black undercoating and poorly recreated fender notches at Russo and Steele, this was a diamond in the rough... that didn't go unnoticed.
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I have bought, restored, sold, many collector cars over the last 40 years. Take a good look at the C1 Corvette market. I sold my last C1 last year. It was a completely original, Top Flighted 1962 factory fuel injected roadster. Pristine condition, once considered the "cream of the crop" of the C1's. It took me over a year to sell it. When it did sell, the price was over $40K lower than my original asking price. Look at the prices of 55 - 57 T-Birds. One of the most beautiful American cars ever built. Prices have fallen sharply. Why? The population that once lusted over these cars is dying off. Most younger buyers want newer cars. They don't have the time it takes to pamper an old car.
They would rather drive a newer SL than a 60's model. I would not be surprised at all if Pagoda prices have reached their peak and now start to fall off a bit.
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Prices have fallen sharply. Why? The population that once lusted over these cars is dying off. Most younger buyers want newer cars. They don't have the time it takes to pamper an old car.
They would rather drive a newer SL than a 60's model. I would not be surprised at all if Pagoda prices have reached their peak and now start to fall off a bit.
I have heard this from several people in the restoration business. It explains why 70's Smokey and the Bandit Firebirds are now popular. The car one lusted for but couldn't afford when they were young but can afford now is what influences these changes in market values. The shop that did the body and paint work for me is also doing a 39 LaSalle for a guy in Arizona who is in his 80's.
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In any case the vintage car market seems to be more robust than the one with Bitcoins these days :)
One opinion that seems interesting that I heard is that with the easier access to better parts and more garages specialising in restoration, a top class 1 car is more easily achievable, thus the rarity premium is lower.
However, I also hear that there has been a growing segmentation between 230 and 250 on one side and 280 on the other. May be a "illuminati" crap info, but apparently the price that a 280 commands is somewhat higher with the gap that always was there, rightly so or not, has widen.
All of that seems not very sophisticated as analysis, but I gave the same impression when I read Financial Times or Bloomberg on NUSE or alike :)